TELEMETRY-BASED IDENTIFICATION OF DECISION PATTERNS AFFECTING PRODUCTION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE DURING ORGANIZATIONAL TRANSFORMATION
Vladislav V. Tereshchenko, Elena O. Kasianenko, Sergey V. Salkutsan, Yury S. Klochkov
Abstract: Organizational transformation projects fail predominantly for managerial rather than technical reasons, while established risk assessment relies on expert judgment. This paper builds a typology of adverse managerial decision patterns in production-type organizational systems from the telemetry of simulation-based decision sessions on a discrete-event model. Two corpora from one simulation platform family cover 1.13 million events of 691 teams. Candidate patterns are operationalized as predicates over timed decision sequences and validated with permutation tests under a false-discovery-rate correction, hold-out, leave-one-game-out and cross-cohort checks, and session-structure and activity-level controls. Eight of ten outcome-testable candidates passed statistical screening; three replicate across cohorts and scenario revisions. Verdicts hold on an alternative criterion (service level), and accounting for decision timing reverses the verdict on one pattern. The number of diagnosed patterns is monotonically associated with lower median profit; transfer beyond the simulation environment remains to be tested.
Keywords: Organizational systems, Adverse managerial decision patterns, Simulation-based decision sessions, Telemetry, Identification of behavioral models, Transformation readiness
DOI: 10.24874/PES08.03B.007
Recieved: 13.05.2026 Revised: 19.08.2026 Accepted: 15.09.2026
UDC:
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