SYSTEMS MODELING AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC BUDGET EFFICIENCY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Zaifun A. Yernazarova
Abstract: The research aims to assess the socio-economic impact of government budget expenditures in Central Asian countries and identify prospects for enhancing this impact in each considered state. To this end, the author conducted a regression analysis of statistical data for the five Central Asian economies over 2022–2024. As a result, the author developed an economic-mathematical model to describe the relationship between the targeted areas of improvement in the socio-economic systems of Central Asian countries and the conditions of public governance applied to these systems. The theoretical contribution of the model lies in its specification of the public governance conditions influencing the effectiveness of government budget spending in these countries: the quantitative condition (the volume of budgetary funds allocated to the economy) and the qualitative condition (the progressiveness of the fiscal and budgetary system). The principal conclusion is that the socio-economic effect of government budget expenditures in Central Asia is manifested in accelerating economic growth, raising living standards, while reducing income inequality, fostering import substitution, and more fully realizing export potential. The research also highlights the prospects for amplifying the impact of budgetary expenditures in the region through improvements in public governance. Evidence-based forecasts of socio-economic development in each of the five Central Asian countries up to 2030 are presented, assuming enhanced quality of state regulation. The author also formulates recommendations for achieving such improvements in governance quality. The practical significance of the research lies in strengthening the methodological and scientific foundations for improving government budget planning and optimizing the allocation of public funds in the countries of Central Asia.
Keywords: Assessment of Impact, Socio-Economic Effect, Government Budget Expenditures, Quality of Public Governance, Economic Regulation, Central Asia
DOI: 10.24874/PES08.02.004
Recieved: 16.09.2025 Revised: 15.01.2026 Accepted: 28.01.2026
UDC:
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