A REGRESSION-BASED DECISION SUPPORT MODEL FOR ASSESSING THE LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES: EVIDENCE FROM CENTRAL ASIA
Zaifun A. Yernazarova
Abstract: The research aims to identify the key parameters of the accounting and analytical system in Central Asian countries to maximize the long-term sustainability of public finances. To this end, the author analyzed five years of statistical data (2020–2024) across four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Using regression analysis, the authors developed an economic and mathematical model to assess the impact of accounting and analytical system parameters on the main indicators of public finance stability in Central Asia. The theoretical significance of the model lies in its demonstration of the crucial role played by the accounting and analytical system in ensuring the long-term sustainability of public finances in the region. This role is reflected in the improvement of the state budget balance, the current account balance, and the reduction of public debt. The model also identified the system’s key parameter for strengthening fiscal sustainability: transparency and ease of conducting financial operations within the accounting and analytical framework. The research revealed negative five-year trends (2020–2024) marked by the deterioration of most accounting and analytical system parameters in all examined Central Asian countries. If these trends persist over the next five years (up to 2030), they will pose a serious threat to the long-term sustainability of public finances in the region. Simultaneously, the research highlights the potential for long-term fiscal sustainability in Central Asia during the Decade of Action (through 2030), contingent upon the realization of an optimistic scenario. This scenario envisions flexible adjustments to the accounting and analytical system parameters in each country, tailored to national specificities. The research also offers original recommendations for implementing such adjustments.
Keywords: Accounting and analytical system, Long-term sustainability, Stability of public finances, Central Asian finances, Quality of public financial management
DOI: 10.24874/PES08.02.001
Recieved: 25.11.2025 Revised: 20.02.2026 Accepted: 04.03.2026
UDC:
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